SpaceX Reports First-Ever Public Earnings Today: Wall Street Expects $6.8B Q2 Revenue as $1.4T Valuation Faces Its First Test

SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings after market close today — the first time in the rocket company's 24-year history that it opens its books to the public.

Three Key Takeaways

Wall Street consensus: $6.82 billion in Q2 revenue. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq in June and currently carries a market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion. Q1 revenue came in at $4.69 billion, and the Street expects Q2 to jump to $6.82 billion. The flip side is less flattering: a net loss of $4.9 billion for all of 2025, and another $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026. Morgan Stanley is holding its $300 price target, arguing that Starlink and Starship's long-term growth curves justify the valuation.

Starlink is the real cash engine. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, up 105% year over year. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, making it the dominant revenue driver. SpaceX's AI segment also brought in $818 million in Q1, though the company has yet to break out what that business actually does.

A $116 billion lock-up expiration looms. Days after the earnings release, SpaceX faces its first major insider lock-up expiration since going public, covering approximately $116 billion in insider holdings. Early employees and investors will be able to sell shares on the open market for the first time, potentially adding short-term pressure on the stock.

WangDou's Take

This earnings report is essentially a Starlink earnings report — rocket launches do not cover the burn, satellite internet is the real money. 10.3 million users across 164 countries is top-tier growth by any telecom standard, but Starlink is simultaneously funding the Starship money pit. Q1 losses hit $4.28 billion — that is $47 million burned every single day. A $1.4 trillion market cap demands a profitability scale that has never existed before, and the clearest path there is Starlink doubling again. As for that $116 billion lock-up release? Early employees have been sitting on paper wealth for over a decade. Take a guess whether some of them are itching to cash out.

Source: Forbes, Motley Fool, Benzinga