ASML Raises Full-Year Guidance for the Second Time as AI Chip Demand Drives Q2 Beat
The lithography giant just raised its full-year outlook for the second time in 2026 — and the reason is singular: chipmakers worldwide are scrambling to build AI compute capacity.
Three Key Takeaways
Full-year guidance up 16%. ASML lifted its 2026 revenue guidance from 36–40 billion euros to 43–45 billion euros, the second raise this year. CEO Christophe Fouquet called first-half orders "extremely strong," noting that customers are accelerating their expansion plans.
Q2 earnings beat across the board. Revenue came in at 9.33 billion euros (analysts expected 8.80 billion), with net income of 2.92 billion euros (versus 2.62 billion expected). The company also announced plans to increase low-NA EUV and DUV immersion lithography capacity by 30% each to serve its backlog.
Intel ships first High-NA EUV chips at volume. Meanwhile, Intel became the first company to ship high-volume logic chips produced on ASML's High-NA EUV scanners, reporting significant yield improvements on its 18A process node. This marks High-NA EUV's transition from lab curiosity to production reality.
WangDou's Take
ASML is selling shovels at the peak of a gold rush. Every company that wants to make AI chips — TSMC, Intel, Samsung — is queuing up for machines that start at 350 million euros apiece (double that for High-NA). The catch: delivery lead times run 18 months, and a 30% capacity bump translates to just a handful of extra machines per year. Meanwhile, customers have collectively pledged trillions in AI data center investment. Whether the AI compute arms race ultimately pays off is anyone's guess, but ASML — as the sole weapons dealer — wins regardless of who comes out on top.